Frontier Airlines Philadelphia International Airport (PHL) Expansion
Overview
Frontier Airlines recently announced a substantial expansion at Philadelphia International Airport (PHL) with 12 new destinations bringing their total count to 40 starting this summer. For the week of June 2nd, 2024, the carrier will offer an average of 42 departures per day cementing them comfortably as the airport’s second largest carrier after American Airlines which has a relatively strong presence at the airport, especially internationally.
New Routes
Chicago O’Hare (ORD) - Daily
Columbus-Glenn (CMH) - Mon, Wed, Fri
Detroit Wayne (DTW) - Daily
Indianapolis (IND) - Sun, Tue, Thu
Kansas City (MCI) - Mon, Wed, Fri
Knoxville (TYS) - Sun, Tue, Thu
Milwaukee (MKE) - Sun, Tue, Thu
Minneapolis/ St. Paul (MSP) - Daily
Pensacola (PNS) - Mon, Wed, Fri
Pittsburgh (PIT) - 2x Daily
Portland, ME (PWM) - Sun, Tue, Thu
St. Louis (STL) - Mon, Wed, Sat
Frontier’s PHL Operation
In addition to the new destinations, Frontier is increasing frequencies across their operation at Philadelphia Intl. In total, for the week of 6/2/24, the airline will have 293 departures to 39 destinations. The only seasonal destination with no service this week is Houston Intercontinental (IAH) which rounds out the airline’s 40 destinations. Of these destinations, 19 are served daily - as shown in the below chart. Departures by day vary from 39 on Tuesdays to 45 on Mondays.
Frontier’s top destination is unsurprisingly Orlando International (MCO) with 4 daily departures. More interestingly, Raleigh/Durham (RDU) is the second busiest route with three daily departures and with 18 weekly departures San Juan Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport (SJU) is the third busiest.
Atlanta Hartsfield (ATL), Boston Logan (BOS), Charlotte (CLT), Pittsburgh (PIT), and Tampa (TPA) all have 2 daily turns while Fort Lauderdale (FLL), Jacksonville (JAX), and Denver (DEN) have between 1-2 daily departures depending on the day of the week.
Cancun (CUN), Chicago Midway (MDW), Chicago O’Hare (ORD), Cleveland Hopkins (CLE), Detroit Wayne (DTW), Miami (MIA), Minneapolis/ St. Paul (MSP), and New Orleans (MSY) round out destinations with daily service.
Frontier’s Market Share at PHL
According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) Frontier Airlines carried 13.72% of passengers at PHL for the 12 months ended November 2023. A sizable and growing number over recent years, Frontier has found itself at home at Philadelphia Intl. The recent expansion announcement from Frontier states their new summer schedule represents a 47% increase over the year prior.
Newly released Summer schedules for American show increased frequencies to many of the newly announced Frontier destinations: PHL-CMH up to 5 daily, PHL-DTW up to 5 daily, PHL-IND up to 6 daily, PHL-MCI up to 4 daily, PHL-TYS up to 4 daily, PHL-MKE up to 4 daily, PHL-PNS up to 2 daily, PHL-PWM up to 4 daily, PHL-STL up to 4 daily. As Frontier charges toward 20%+ market share at PHL it will be interesting to see how American, and the airport’s third largest carrier, Spirit Airlines, continue to respond. Spirit likely will not have much of a response, however for many of the newly announced markets American is the sole option direct to Philadelphia, (CMH, IND, MCI, TYS, MKE, PNS, PIT, and PWM) creating new competition for the airline and their new schedule reflects they want to keep it that way.
The situation at Philadelphia Intl is becoming unique as there is no other major city with one major airport (yes, ILG, TTN, and ACY are relatively close but not major airports and only served by one carrier each) where one ultra low cost carriers (ULCC) will fly over 20% of the capacity. For perspective, Frontier flew 10.19% of passengers at their hometown airport Denver International (DEN) and Spirit flew 16.03% of passengers at Las Vegas (LAS) and 17.64% at Orlando (MCO) for the same time period. Additionally, Spirit flew 26.98% of the passengers at their home airport Fort Lauderdale (FLL), however Miami International (MIA) and Palm Beach (PBI) are nearby with much lower ULCC share.
What makes Philadelphia different from these mentioned focus cities for ULCCs is it is the sole major airport for a large metro area and it is not a vacation destination which is typically the bread and butter of ULCCs. Traditional major airports like ATL, ORD, DFW, DEN, LAX, BOS, IAD, JFK, MIA, MSP, DTW etc do not have this concentration of ULCCs. The Philadelphia area is a sizable business market and arguably underserved by American Airlines given the airlines presence still is not close to what it was before COVID-19.
Frontier’s Future at PHL
Maybe Philadelphia’s unique situation will play out well for Frontier as a second option to American on numerous routes where the airline has little to no direct competition. Short hops to cities like Raleigh/ Durham (RDU) seem to be working well for Frontier as they bump up to a third daily departure, adding competitive pressure to American. Additionally, the airline continues to expand their schedule to sunny vacation destinations. This two sided strategy comes together well with the potential to even offer some connections into the Northeast like Portland, ME (PWM) and new additional service to Boston (BOS). Lastly, with Frontier expecting A321XLR deliveries in 2026, PHL is poised to be a great gateway if the airline decides to deploy these aircraft to Europe. As for additional future routes here are some thoughts with reasoning, keep in mind these are theoretical with some being more realistic than others.
BUF, SYR, BDL, ORF - All in the Frontier network and American is the sole carrier on these short hops from PHL. If Frontier wants increased density in their network they could fly to these cities and ofter connections through PHL. ALB, BTV, ROC, PVD, and MHT can be added to this category but would probably be less likely
LAS, PHX, LAX, SAN - Frontier has served some of these in the past, while they are longer routes they seem like a blindspot for the airline at PHL. SAN is only served by American and PHX primarily American with rare Southwest service
AUS, SAT, IAH - SAT would be a redemption, AUS is only served by American and seems like a no-brainer, IAH is currently seasonal opportunity to extend
SJD, PVR, SJO, STT, STX, SXM - some of these may be a stretch but all are current or soon to be Frontier destinations - seasonal one to three weekly flights could work. SJD, PVR, and SJO are currently unserved from PHL
KEF, DUB, EDI, MAN, LGW/LTN/STN, ORY, AMS, LIS, MAD, BCN - far off with the A321XLR deliveries starting in 2026 although fun to think about. What would an 8+ hour flight on Frontier be like?