Avelo Airlines Network Analysis: 93% of Routes are Exclusive to the Airline

Overview

Avelo Airlines is an American Low Cost Carrier which launched in April 2021 with bases at Burbank (BUR), New Haven (HVN), Orlando (MCO), Wilmington, DE (ILG), Raleigh-Durham (RDU), and Las Vegas (LAS). The carrier operates a fleet of 737s with seven 737-700s fitted with 147 seats and nine 737-800s with 189 seats. Above is a map of Avelo’s route map. The airline serves 59 routes and, as aforementioned, 93% of these airport pairs are served exclusively by Avelo, however some of these routes serve metropolitan areas with multiple airports offering competition.

Routes with no Competition from Nearby Airports

Of Avelo’s 59 routes, 36, or 61%, have no competition from any nearby airports within a metropolitan area. While there may be disagreement as to what constitutes a nearby airport and whether two airports are included in the same metro area these are the routes which can be considered to have little or no direct competition by air. For example, for this analysis Baltimore/Washington International Airport (BWI) and Manchester–Boston Regional Airport (MHT) are included in the Washington DC and Boston metropolitan areas respectively. In these two cases BWI-ILM and RDU-MHT have air service from other airports in the metro area. Below is a list of routes which Avelo truly has no direct air competition.

BUR-SLE, BUR-BRO, PSP-EUG, PSP-RDM, PSP-STS, STS-LAS, STS-RDM, HVN-DAB, HVN-FLL, HVN-RSW, HVN-MYR, HVN-MCO, HVN-RDU, HVN-SJU, HVN-SRQ, HVN-TPA, HVN-PBI, HVN-ILM, HVN-BWI, HVN-CHS, HVN-MDW, HVN-GSP, HVN-BNA, HVN-SAV, FLL-ILM, MCO-BRO, MCO-ILM, MCO-BGM, MCO-DBQ, MCO-AZO, MCO-LAN, MCO-CWA, TPA-ILM, LAS-RDM, LAS-SLE, ROC-RDU

Interestingly, a higher concentration of these routes are in the eastern United States. One reason for this is Avelo’s base in the west at Burbank serves many routes with service to LAX and in some cases SNA. A second reason is in the eastern US Avelo serves smaller markets from Orlando (MCO) like Binghamton (BGM), Dubuque (DBQ), Kalamazoo (AZO), Lansing (LAN), and The Central Wisconsin Airport (CWA). Many markets similar to these have Allegiant Airlines service to Orlando Sanford Airport (SFB), but Avelo likely purposely identified these markets with no Allegiant service. Lastly, Avelo is the only carrier at New Haven (HVN) has no competition. Hartford (BDL) or New York City airports may be within a 1-2 hour drive, but they are not very close or convenient.

Routes with Competition from Nearby Airports

19 of Avelo’s 59 routes have competition from nearby airports. Representing 32% of Avelo’s routes, the majority of these originate from Avelo’s Burbank (BUR) and Wilmington, DE (ILG) bases. LAX/SNA and PHL can be cross shopped as alternatives for these airports and offer flights to many of the destinations Avelo serves. The remaining routes are from Raleigh/ Durham (RDU) to Palm Beach (PBI) and Manchester (MHT) and Wilmington, NC (ILM) to Baltimore (BWI). These routes have multiple alternatives to Boston (BOS), Fort Lauderdale (FLL)/ Miami (MIA), and the Washington D.C. area respectively. Below is a list of the routes -

BUR-ACV, BUR-MFR, BUR-RDD, BUR-RDM, BUR-PSC, BUR-BZN, BUR-FCA, ILG-FLL, ILG-RSW, ILG-MCO, ILG-SJU, ILG-SRQ, ILG-TPA, ILG-MYR, ILG-PBI, ILG-ILM, PBI-RDU, BWI-ILM, MHT-RDU,

Routes with Direct Competition

Lastly are routes Avelo serves with competition. There are just 4 of these routes representing 7% of routes for the airport. Three routes from Burbank (BUR) two of which are served by Alaska Airlines and one by Southwest and one route from RDU-RSW is served by Breeze Airways. Routes below -

BUR-BOI, BUR-EUG, BUR-STS, RSW-RDU

Theoretical Future Routes

Below are some potential routes for expansion with reasoning, similar to the strategy they’ve used for their network thus far, starting with their current bases. Please keep in mind these are speculation and there are many different ways to consider these potential routes.

  • BUR - CRP/LBB/MAF - Similar to the airline’s current Brownsville service, no direct competition or flights to other Los Angeles area airports. The airline is headquartered in Houston; is there more Texas service in the future?

  • MCO - CRP/LBB/MAF/CMI/RST/BTR/COS - Same reasoning as BUR service for the Texas destinations. For the other markets, currently unserved by MCO or SFB likely with enough seasonal demand.

  • HVN - JAX/GSO/MSY/ORF/RIC/BTV - Avelo likes the coastal/ Florida routes from New Haven. GSO and RIC are a wildcards.

  • ILG - JAX/RDU/CHS/BNA/MSY - More Florida and destinations already served by the airline. Interesting play with Philadelphia’s airport (PHL) south of the city close to Wilmington, DE. Driven by local incentives for the airport.

  • RDU - ILG/PNS/SRQ/ALB/DAY/SAT/BTV/BHM - RDU is hot with many low cost carriers trying new routes. A lot of the routes depend on how aggressive the airline wants to be in this market.

  • LAS - BTR/CYS/CPR/JAN/MSN/PIH/OGD/RDD - All markets unserved from LAS which could potentially support service. Avelo currently flies RDD-BUR and previously flew OGD-BUR.

Article based on 6/1/24 schedule